Tag: Sports Science

Do lactate supplements work? A systematic review run thanks to AI agents to make some sense of the hype

Lactate supplements are the latest hype. Lactate gels appeared in the Tour de France peloton, “exogenous lactate” is a growth category in sports nutrition, and the underlying science genuinely has moved — lactate is a fuel and a signalling molecule, not a waste product (if you want to read an excellent review from Prof George Brooks, the world leading authority on lactate metabolism, click here). The question I wanted answered was narrower and more practical: does ingesting it make anyone faster?

So I ran a systematic review and meta-analysis. I did not do it with the final aim to submit it to a peer reviewed journal to get a publication out of it. If I did that, you would be probably reading this in two years after going through the pain of: writing the paper, formatting it to a journal, submitting it, going around the houses with reviewers and editors, eventually get it accepted and published. I just wanted a quick answer for me and I am sharing this on my blog. So, despite the scientific approach to the process (systematic review and meta-analysis) this is not peer reviewed and therefore you need to consider this blog for what it is. For this work I used Claude Science (Anthropic) with Opus 5 as the LLM.

What follows is both the answer and an honest account of how it was produced — including where an AI research agent hit its limits, where it made mistakes, and where my judgement as the researcher had to override it. That second part matters as much as the first, because the tooling is now good enough that the interesting question is no longer “can it do the analysis” but “where does the human have to stay in the loop.”

The short summary

Across eleven randomised crossover trials (119 participants, 1994–2024), the pooled effect of exogenous lactate on exercise performance was g = 0.13 (95% CI −0.05 to 0.31, p = 0.13). That interval includes zero. Splitting by training status gave athletes g = 0.28 and non-athletes g = 0.07, but the formal test of that difference was null (p = 0.46).

Lactate is unambiguously a usable fuel and a genuine signalling molecule. It is not, on current evidence, an ergogenic aid.

Those two statements sit together comfortably. The marketing story runs: lactate is fuel, therefore ingesting lactate helps performance. The evidence supports the first half and has not yet delivered the second, but considering the paucity of studies, hopefully more studies will be conducted to see if this really works.

How the review was built

I searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Europe PMC and CrossRef, retrieving 15,871 records that deduplicated to 13,079. A topic sieve narrowed this to 1,331 records for title/abstract screening, 36 full texts were sought, and 11 trials met criteria. Ten came out of the search; the eleventh — Van Montfoort et al. (2004) — the search missed entirely, and it only entered the review because I went looking for it by hand afterwards. More on that below.

PRISMA flow diagram: 15,871 records identified, 13,079 after deduplication, 1,331 screened, 36 full texts sought, 11 trials included.
PRISMA flow. The two manuscripts obtained after the initial search are counted in the full-text row.

Where I had to intervene: the screening ceiling

The protocol specified duplicate independent screening with a Cohen’s κ agreement statistic — standard practice, and what any reviewer would expect. Partway through, the agent hit a hard capacity limit: it had screened 1,053 of 1,331 abstracts and could not run the second reviewer pass. Crucially, it stopped and asked rather than quietly proceeding, laying out three options: enable parallel processing so the full protocol could run, accept single-reviewer screening as a stated deviation, or narrow scope to the core identified trial set.

I chose to narrow scope. That was a judgement call with a real cost, and it is worth being explicit about the trade: the review is honest about the trials it found, but the 278-record tail got a keyword rule rather than reviewer judgement, and this review has no inter-rater agreement statistic. Every included trial was independently identified by more than one search route, which is reassuring about the core set — but it is not a substitute for duplicate screening, and I would not want that glossed. As it turned out, the search had a bigger problem than the screening did.

This is the first place the human-in-the-loop mattered. An agent optimising for a finished-looking deliverable would have reported “systematic review” and moved on. The useful behaviour was surfacing the constraint as a decision for me to own.

Where I had to intervene again: the search missed a trial

After the first version of this post went up I obtained two full manuscripts I had not been able to get during the review. One was Morris et al. (2011), which I had previously worked from the abstract. The other turned out not to be in the review at all: Van Montfoort et al. (2004), a 15-runner double-blind crossover comparing sodium lactate, sodium bicarbonate, sodium citrate and sodium chloride on time to exhaustion. It is indexed in PubMed. It is exactly on topic. The search did not surface it.

That is worth being blunt about, because it is a different kind of failure from the screening ceiling. The screening problem was a known limitation I flagged and worked around. This was a silent miss: a query built around lactate-supplementation phrasing did not match a paper framed as a comparison of four alkalinising salts, and nothing in the pipeline registered that anything was absent. Recall failures do not announce themselves — there is no error message for a paper you never saw. With one confirmed miss out of eleven included trials, the honest position is that I do not know the true recall of this search, and neither does any automated pipeline that has not been checked against a hand-built reference set.

Adding it did not change the conclusion — the pooled performance estimate moved from 0.13 to 0.13, which is the least interesting possible outcome and also the most reassuring one. What it did change is the acid–base picture, the small-study asymmetry test, and my confidence in the corpus being complete.

What the trials show

Forest plot: exogenous lactate and exercise performance, stratified by training status. Pooled g = 0.13 (95% CI -0.05 to 0.31).
Performance outcomes, stratified by training status. Diamonds are pooled estimates; the flag marks effects imputed rather than reported.

The athlete stratum’s point estimate is four times the non-athlete one, which is exactly the sort of contrast that becomes “works better in trained athletes” in a product brochure. It should not. The interval spans zero generously, the moderator test is null, and the stratum is carried by its two strongest single results — both of which have a problem:

  • Azevedo et al. (2007) (g = 1.21, n = 6) — the largest effect in the review. It compared a lactate-polymer multi-ingredient drink against an isocaloric fructose/glucose sports drink. Active comparator, multiple active ingredients: any difference cannot be attributed to lactate only really.
  • Morris et al. (2011) (g = 0.79, n = 11) — this one changed since the first version of this post, and it is worth explaining how. Originally I could not obtain the full text, so I reconstructed the effect from the reported p-value and rated the trial high risk of bias for everything it did not describe. The full manuscript then turned up. It is a properly conducted double-blind randomised crossover with an aspartame placebo in matched capsules and at least 48 h between trials, so most of that bias rating was my ignorance rather than the trial’s design, and I have downgraded it to some concerns. But the means it contains (168 ± 31 vs 137 ± 41 s) give a larger effect than my reconstruction did, and the acknowledgements name the supplier: Sport Specifics Inc., the company behind SportLegs — the same firm that supplied and funded Ewell et al. (2024). The strongest signal in the trained stratum is a manufacturer-supplied product.

Drop Azevedo and the pooled estimate falls to 0.11. Drop Morris and it falls to 0.09 — Morris is now the single most influential trial in the analysis, which is an uncomfortable place for a sponsor-supplied product to sit. The athlete stratum’s I² of 59% is itself the tell that these trials are not measuring one common effect.

The caveat that matters most

Four of the eleven performance effects are null-imputed. Those trials reported their performance outcome as “non-significant” and gave no means or standard deviations, so there was nothing to extract. Entering them as zero is conservative about direction but it fakes precision — a non-significant result is compatible with a range of effects, not specifically with zero.

This is why the primary model shows I² ≈ 0% and a reassuringly tight interval. Refit on the seven effects that were actually reported, and the interval widens roughly twofold: g = 0.24 (95% CI −0.09 to 0.57). That is the honest number. I put it in the report next to the primary estimate rather than in a supplementary appendix, because reading only the primary model would leave you more confident than the evidence warrants.

Left: acid-base outcomes, study-aggregated, with and without Van Montfoort 2004. Right: sensitivity suite showing no specification moves the performance estimate away from zero.
Left: acid–base outcomes, shown with and without the newly added Van Montfoort trial. Right: the full sensitivity suite — every specification lands in the same place.

The mechanistic crux: no mediator big enough

If lactate salts worked the way bicarbonate does, the acid–base shift would be the mechanism. Pooled across five trials, that effect is g = 0.72 (95% CI −0.53 to 1.98) — but that number is doing something misleading, and the newly added trial is why. Van Montfoort et al. gave 400 mg/kg of sodium lactate, the largest dose in the corpus, and measured a very large bicarbonate shift (g = 3.36). Its placebo, though, was iso-osmolar sodium chloride, which lowers bicarbonate on its own — so part of that gap is the placebo moving down rather than lactate moving up, and the SD behind it is model-derived from a seven-person blood subsample. Excluding it, the pooled acid–base effect is g = 0.43 (95% CI −0.20 to 1.06). Both are on the figure. Neither interval excludes zero.

The most informative trial here is Oliveira et al. (2017), the only one that included a bicarbonate positive control. Calcium lactate moved bicarbonate essentially not at all (g = −0.04), in the same participants, against a comparator known to work. A dose that fails to shift blood chemistry also fails to shift performance. There is no mediator here large enough to produce an ergogenic effect.

Where lactate genuinely does something

The metabolic literature is much stronger than the performance literature, and it deserves separating out.

It is oxidised fast. In a tracer study, ¹³CO₂ production from orally ingested ¹³C-lactate rose faster and more completely than from any other labelled substrate tested, doubling between 45 and 60 minutes of exercise while every other substrate peaked at or after 75 minutes. The breath kinetics are too fast for a liver-first gluconeogenic route, which points at working muscle as the site of most of that oxidation.

It is antilipolytic, and substantially so. A sodium-lactate infusion raising plasma lactate to 2.7 mmol/L cut postabsorptive lipolysis by about 30% — palmitate flux 84 ± 32 versus 120 ± 35 µmol/min, mean difference −36 (95% CI −58 to −14), p = 0.003 — with lower free fatty acid concentrations. Insulin sensitivity itself was unchanged. This is a clean, well-controlled effect, plausibly via the GPR81 receptor in adipose tissue.

Note the direction, though. Suppressing fat oxidation during prolonged exercise shifts reliance toward finite carbohydrate stores. For endurance work that is arguably the wrong way round — which makes a substrate-utilisation trial more interesting than yet another time trial, and raises the real possibility that exogenous lactate impairs long-duration performance (but we definitively need experimental trials to test this hypothesis).

Quality of the evidence

RoB 2 traffic-light grid and per-domain summary across eleven crossover trials: 2 low, 8 some concerns, 1 high.
RoB 2 adapted for crossover designs: 2 low, 8 some concerns, 1 high.

Nine of eleven trials carry some concerns or high risk of bias. Selective reporting is the weakest domain — which is the same defect that produced the four null-imputed effects, since a trial reporting “no significant difference” without numbers is simultaneously a reporting problem and a data-extraction problem. Median sample size across the whole corpus is 11. Egger’s test now crosses the conventional threshold for small-study asymmetry (p = 0.049, previously 0.074) — at k = 11 I would still read that as descriptive rather than as a bias test, but it moved in the direction you would expect when a genuinely missed trial is added.

On GRADE domains I would call the performance evidence low certainty: downgraded for risk of bias, imprecision, and indirectness across heterogeneous forms, doses and comparators.

The chemistry: read the label

The last piece of work conducted with the AI agent was structural — what is actually in these products. I had the agent build every structure from PubChem stereodescriptors and verify each stereocentre computationally.

Lactate and twelve lactate-delivering compounds, grouped by release mechanism, with CIP stereodescriptors verified programmatically.
Lactate and twelve lactate-delivering compounds, grouped by release mechanism. Green: reference species. Blue: ionic salts, lactate free on dissolution. Purple: esters and oligomers, lactate released only on hydrolysis.

Where the agent got it wrong

This figure is where the most instructive error happened, and I want to describe it precisely because it is the kind of mistake that is easy to ship.

The first rendered version labelled every L-form with the CIP descriptor belonging to its mirror image. Physiological lactate is L-(S); the panels said (R). The cause was subtle: the SMILES strings had been written by hand, and reordering the substituents around a stereocentre while keeping the original chirality tag silently inverts the molecule. No error, no warning — a chemically valid structure of the wrong enantiomer.

It was caught by looking at the rendered figure and noticing the annotations contradicted the compound names. Every SMILES was then rebuilt from PubChem’s own stereodescriptors and re-verified on three axes: successful parsing, per-centre CIP label matching the name, and unchanged molecular formula. That third check is what confirmed the fix touched stereochemistry only, so the mass fractions computed earlier remained valid.

An agent that renders a figure and moves on ships the wrong enantiomer. Checking the output against what it claims to show is not optional.

There is a related point about why the error mattered scientifically rather than just cosmetically: several marketed lactate salts are sold as racemates. Iron(II) lactate and sodium stearoyl lactylate, among others, are DL- mixtures — meaning half the delivered lactate is the D-isomer, which in humans is largely of gut-bacterial origin and metabolised far more slowly. In the corrected figure those compounds are deliberately drawn without stereocentres, so the graphic does not imply an enantiomeric purity the products do not have.

Hydration state changes the dose by a quarter

FormLactate % w/wmmol lactate/g
Magnesium L-lactate88.09.9
Calcium L-lactate (anhydrous)81.69.2
Sodium L-lactate79.58.9
Iron(II) lactate (racemic)76.18.6
Ethyl L-lactate75.48.5
Potassium L-lactate69.57.8
Calcium L-lactate pentahydrate57.86.5
Sodium stearoyl lactylate (racemic)39.54.4
Calcium lactate gluconate27.53.1
Lactate content per gram varies more than threefold across marketed forms. Full table of 15 forms in the supplementary data.

Calcium lactate pentahydrate is the form actually weighed into most oral products, and it is 57.8% lactate by mass — not the 81.6% of the anhydrous salt. A trial reporting “500 mg/kg calcium lactate” therefore delivers materially different lactate depending on which it used, and papers frequently do not say. The counter-ion sets its own ceiling: calcium lactate at 500 mg/kg/day also delivers roughly 92 mg/kg/day of calcium.

Across the corpus of literature analysed, gastrointestinal tolerability — not lactate pharmacology — was the binding constraint. In Swensen et al. (1994), GI efflux at polylactate concentrations of 2.5% or above forced the drink down to 0.75%, meaning the tolerable dose may sit below any effective one: a dose-ceiling confound rather than simply low power. In Bordoli et al. (2024), overt GI side effects in the lactate arm likely compromised blinding.

What I take from this

For athletes and coaches. There is no good evidence lactate supplements improve performance, trained or untrained. The trials that look most favourable are the ones with an active comparator, compromised blinding, or a manufacturer in the acknowledgements. The single result I would build a follow-up study on is Ewell et al. (2024): oral lactate changed nothing about VO₂peak, ventilatory threshold or work rate at lactate threshold, but sustained work rate in a 20-minute functional threshold test was about 3.5% higher (204 vs 197 W). One modest effect on one outcome in fifteen people is a hypothesis, not a finding — and it is worth knowing that the supplement and the funding both came from the manufacturer. It points somewhere specific, which is different from being persuasive.

For researchers. The gaps are unusually well-defined. No trial has tested a form and dose that reliably produces the acid–base shift while remaining tolerable — the effective dose and the tolerability ceiling have not been shown to overlap. No trial has stratified L- versus DL- form, despite many marketed products being racemic. And given how substantial the antilipolytic effect is, a trial powered on substrate utilisation during prolonged exercise would tell us more than another time trial. For sure we need larger sample sizes.

On working this way

A few observations from doing a full systematic review with an AI agent as the analytical engine.

The mechanical work compresses enormously. Corpus assembly, deduplication across three databases, effect-size derivation under crossover assumptions, the sensitivity suite, RoB coding, and five publication-grade figures — that is weeks of work, and it ran in a session.

The errors are not where you expect. Nothing went wrong in the meta-analytic mathematics. What went wrong was a DOI parser harvesting identifiers from reference lists rather than article metadata, corrupting 1,285 records; and hand-written chemistry silently inverting stereochemistry. Also, some of the references were pulled in incorrectly. All were plumbing failures that produced confident, plausible, wrong output — the failure mode that peer review sometimes is worst at catching.

The human contribution was mostly refusal. Refusing to let single-reviewer screening be described as a full protocol. Refusing to supply a fabricated contact email to unblock a resolver. Refusing to accept a stereochemistry figure that looked right. Refusing to report the tight primary interval without the imputation-corrected one beside it. None of that is analytical labour — it is deciding what an honest version of the claim looks like, which remains the researcher’s job.

What earned trust was the agent stopping. The single most useful behaviour across the whole project was hitting the screening ceiling and asking me how to proceed, with the trade-offs of each option spelled out, instead of producing something that looked complete. Every protocol deviation in this review is written into the methods, footnoted on the PRISMA diagram, and listed in a companion document ordered by how much each should change your reading. That is the standard I would want, and it is achievable — but it has to be asked for.


The trials themselves: what was given, how much, for how long

Below is every trial in the review. Two things stand out once they are laid side by side. Brand was recoverable for most trials — difficult to verify the salt hydration state or enantiomeric composition of what was swallowed. And the supplier column has a pattern in it. Sport Specifics Inc. — the SportLegs manufacturer — supplied the product in three of the eleven trials, including the two that produced the strongest results, and funded one of them outright.

And only one trial used chronic loading. Oliveira et al. (2017) gave 500 mg/kg/day in four divided doses across five consecutive days. Every other trial was a single acute dose or feeding during exercise. Any claim you read about “lactate loading” rests on that one trial — which was null in its outcomes.

StudynStatusLactate formBrand / supplierDose as reportedSupplementation durationComparator
Ewell et al. 202415non_athleteCa lactate + Mg lactate + vitamin D3 (capsules)SportLegs (Sport Specifics Inc., Longmont, CO, USA)1 capsule per 22.7 kg body mass (manufacturer guideline); 372 mg lactate/capsuleSingle acute doseOrganic rice starch placebo, visually identical
Bordoli et al. 202414athleteCalcium lactate in opaque gelatine capsulesSpecial Ingredients Ltd. (Chesterfield, UK)147 mg/kg body mass calcium lactate = 120 mg/kg lactateSingle acute dose, ingested over 5–10 minFlour placebo in matched capsules
Oliveira et al. 201718athleteCalcium lactateNot reported500 mg/kg BM/day as 4 × 125 mg/kg dosesCHRONIC — 5 consecutive daysPlacebo + sodium bicarbonate positive control (same 500 mg/kg/d)
Painelli et al. 201412non_athleteCalcium lactateNot reportedHigh dose 300 mg/kg BM; low dose 150 mg/kg BMSingle acute dosePlacebo
Northgraves et al. 20147non_athleteLactate supplement (salt not specified)Not reported1115 mg absolute lactate (not body-mass scaled)Single acute dosePlain flour placebo + NaHCO3 300 mg/kg arm + NaCl placebo
Peveler & Palmer 20129unclearMagnesium lactate dihydrate + calcium lactate monohydrateNot named (commercial product; abstract refers to ‘manufacturers of supplements’)Not reported in abstractSingle acute dosePlacebo
Morris et al. 201111athleteCalcium lactateNot named; product supplied by Sport Specifics Inc.120 mg/kg body mass lactateSingle acute doseAspartame placebo in matched capsules + no-treatment control
Azevedo et al. 20076athleteLactate-polymer multi-ingredient drink (lactate polymer + fructose + glucose + glucose polymer)CytoMax (containing PolyLactate); leading sports drink as comparatorBeverage consumed before and during exercise (tracer study)Pre-exercise + during 90 min continuous exerciseIsocaloric fructose + glucose sports drink (ACTIVE comparator)
Bryner et al. 19987athlete2% lactate solution, ± 8% carbohydrateNot reported2% lactate beverage consumed every 20 min during exerciseConsumed DURING exercise, every 20 min to exhaustionPlacebo, 8% CHO, and 8% CHO + 2% lactate arms
Swensen et al. 19945unclearPolylactate (amino acid/lactate salt) + glucose polymerNot named (‘as supplied by the manufacturer’)0.3 g CHO/kg BM every 20 min as 7% solution; 6.25 g GP + 0.75 g PL per 100 mLConsumed DURING exercise, every 20 min to exhaustionIsocaloric pure glucose polymer solution
Van Montfoort et al. 200415athleteSodium lactate (reagent grade, gelatin capsules)None — laboratory salt, not a commercial product400 mg/kg body mass sodium lactateSingle acute doseSodium chloride, iso-osmolar (plus NaHCO3 and Na-citrate arms)
All eleven trials. Morris and Van Montfoort rows are now from the primary manuscripts rather than from abstracts or secondary citations.

Why the dose column cannot be read straight down

The corpus reports dose against three incompatible bases. Bordoli et al. specify 147 mg/kg of calcium lactate and convert it to 120 mg/kg of lactate; recomputing that from the anhydrous formula (81.63% lactate w/w) returns 120.0 mg/kg, which confirms both their arithmetic and that they used the anhydrous basis. Oliveira et al. and Painelli et al. report salt mass without stating hydration state, so delivered lactate is either about 82% of the printed figure (anhydrous) or about 58% (pentahydrate) — the papers do not say which. Ewell et al. report lactate mass, at 19 mg/kg: roughly one sixth of Bordoli’s dose, and the lowest in the review by a wide margin.

Two trials were dose-limited by the gut rather than by design. Swensen et al. had to cut polylactate from 2.5% to 0.75% because higher concentrations caused severe gastrointestinal efflux — meaning the tolerable dose may sit below any effective one. Bordoli et al. reported overt GI symptoms in the lactate arm, which probably unblinded it.

In conclusion

There is still a lot of work needed to really understand if lactate supplementation has positive effects on performance (and define on what type of performance). Most of all, it is still difficult to determine the appropriate dosage and formulation. Considering the hype of recent months, I hope more independent studies will be conducted to answer all those questions.


References

All eleven trials included in the review, in APA 7th edition. These were generated from retrieved PubMed citation metadata rather than transcribed by hand — which is how I caught that four of my own internal study labels had been named after the wrong author in the initial data scraping.

  • Azevedo, J. L., Tietz, E., Two-Feathers, T., Paull, J., & Chapman, K. (2007). Lactate, fructose and glucose oxidation profiles in sports drinks and the effect on exercise performance. PLOS ONE, 2(9), e927. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0000927
  • Bordoli, C., Varley, I., Sharpe, G. R., Johnson, M. A., & Hennis, P. J. (2024). Effects of oral lactate supplementation on acid-base balance and prolonged high-intensity interval cycling performance. Journal of Functional Morphology and Kinesiology, 9(3), 139. https://doi.org/10.3390/jfmk9030139
  • Bryner, R. W., Hornsby, W. G., Chetlin, R., Ullrich, I. H., & Yeater, R. A. (1998). Effect of lactate consumption on exercise performance. The Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness, 38(2), 116–123.
  • Ewell, T. R., Bomar, M. C., Brown, D. M., Brown, R. L., Kwarteng, B. S., Thomson, D. P., & Bell, C. (2024). The influence of acute oral lactate supplementation on responses to cycle ergometer exercise: A randomized, crossover pilot clinical trial. Nutrients, 16(16), 2624. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu16162624
  • Morris, D. M., Shafer, R. S., Fairbrother, K. R., & Woodall, M. W. (2011). Effects of lactate consumption on blood bicarbonate levels and performance during high-intensity exercise. International Journal of Sport Nutrition and Exercise Metabolism, 21(4), 311–317. https://doi.org/10.1123/ijsnem.21.4.311
  • Northgraves, M. J., Peart, D. J., Jordan, C. A., & Vince, R. V. (2014). Effect of lactate supplementation and sodium bicarbonate on 40-km cycling time trial performance. Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 28(1), 273–280. https://doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0b013e3182986a4c
  • Oliveira, L. F., de Salles Painelli, V., Nemezio, K., Gonçalves, L. S., Yamaguchi, G., Saunders, B., Gualano, B., & Artioli, G. G. (2017). Chronic lactate supplementation does not improve blood buffering capacity and repeated high-intensity exercise. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, 27(11), 1231–1239. https://doi.org/10.1111/sms.12792
  • Painelli, V. de S., da Silva, R. P., de Oliveira, O. M., de Oliveira, L. F., Benatti, F. B., Rabelo, T., Guilherme, J. P., Lancha, A. H., & Artioli, G. G. (2014). The effects of two different doses of calcium lactate on blood pH, bicarbonate, and repeated high-intensity exercise performance. International Journal of Sport Nutrition and Exercise Metabolism, 24(3), 286–295. https://doi.org/10.1123/ijsnem.2013-0191
  • Peveler, W. W., & Palmer, T. G. (2012). Effect of magnesium lactate dihydrate and calcium lactate monohydrate on 20-km cycling time trial performance. Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 26(4), 1149–1153. https://doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0b013e31822dcd7f
  • Swensen, T., Crater, G., Bassett, D. R., & Howley, E. T. (1994). Adding polylactate to a glucose polymer solution does not improve endurance. International Journal of Sports Medicine, 15(7), 430–434. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-2007-1021083
  • Van Montfoort, M. C. E., Van Dieren, L., Hopkins, W. G., & Shearman, J. P. (2004). Effects of ingestion of bicarbonate, citrate, lactate, and chloride on sprint running. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 36(7), 1239–1243. https://doi.org/10.1249/01.mss.0000132378.73975.25

Analysis in Python (pandas, RDKit, matplotlib) and R (metafor).

This is a research synthesis, not clinical or nutritional advice and it is not peer reviewed. Lactate salts carry sodium, calcium or potassium loads that matter for anyone with renal, cardiac or electrolyte conditions, and the doses used in these trials caused gastrointestinal intolerance in some participants. Decisions about supplementation for a specific person belong with a qualified clinician or sports dietitian who has the full picture.

A New Dashboard for Long-Distance Triathlon: Tracking the 2026 Ironman, 70.3 and T100 Season

Long-distance triathlon has never generated more data. Between the Ironman Pro Series, the Ironman 70.3 circuit and the PTO’s T100 Triathlon World Tour, the professional field now races across dozens of events a year, each producing split times, finishing margins and — if you go looking for it — a rich picture of the environmental conditions athletes faced on the day. The problem is that this information sits scattered across result pages, weather databases and is rarely analysed as a whole. So I built something to fix that.

I’ve developed an interactive Long-Distance Triathlons Dashboard, together with an open data repository, to bring professional results from Ironman (full distance), Ironman 70.3 and T100 into one place and let anyone explore how performances — and the conditions behind them — are trending. This post walks through what the tool does and offers a snapshot of how the 2026 elite season has played out so far.

The dashboard

The dashboard is live and free to use here: ironmandt100analysis.netlify.app. It uses professional-only results — no age-group data — sourced from PTO Stats (the Professional Triathletes Organisation), combined with race-day environmental data from Open-Meteo. It’s organised into three views.

  • Trends & Conditions — split-time trends across seasons and how race-day conditions line up with performance.
  • Athletes — individual athlete profiles and split histories.
  • Rankings & Predictions — current standings and model-based projections for future races this season.

The core of the analysis lives in the Trends & Conditions view. Rather than tracking a single winner’s time — which is noisy, since one exceptional or off day skews the picture — the trend charts plot the average of each race’s top three finishers for every split (swim, bike, run and overall), with a shaded band showing ±1 standard deviation across that podium. A tight band means the top three were closely matched; a wide band means the race blew apart. You can filter by race brand to compare like-for-like distances, and by category to separate the men’s and women’s fields.

Where I think it gets genuinely useful — and where it connects to my longer-standing interest in environmental physiology — is the conditions layer. For every race the dashboard pulls temperature, humidity, wind and the WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) heat-stress index, and sets them against performance. There’s a race-level view (winning splits against the day’s conditions) and a finisher-level view, where every individual result is plotted against the condition recorded for that race and a Pearson correlation is computed on whatever subset you’ve filtered to. Water temperature is matched to swim splits; WBGT is used for the bike and run, because those are where combined heat stress bites hardest. A sortable race-by-race table underneath ties it all together — date, event, winner, every split, and the conditions on the day.

A couple of honest caveats are built into the tool. Splits aren’t comparable across brands, because the distances differ (a full Ironman, a 70.3 and a 100 km T100 are three different animals), so the “fastest recorded splits” are grouped by brand. And the wind figure is each day’s maximum hourly reading, which can overstate what athletes actually felt during an early-morning start. Transparency about these limitations matters more to me than a tidier-looking chart.

The open data repository

The 2026 season so far

So what does the season look like through the middle of 2026? Below are some of the headline professional results across the three series. These are selected highlights — the full race-by-race picture, with every split, lives in the dashboard.

T100 Triathlon World Tour

The big structural change for 2026 is that the T100 now runs separate men’s and women’s events through the regular season — four standalone races for each field — before both converge at the Qatar World Championship Final in December. On the men’s side, reigning champion Hayden Wilde opened in devastating form, taking Singapore by more than six minutes (3:21:58). Rico Bogen then successfully defended his San Francisco title over Lasse Nygaard Priester, with Wilde third. In the women’s races, Taylor Knibb edged a tight season opener on the Gold Coast, and Georgia Taylor-Brown ran down Julie Derron in Spain to claim her first career T100 title.

T100 race (2026)FieldWinner
Gold CoastWomenTaylor Knibb
SingaporeMenHayden Wilde
Spain (Pamplona)WomenGeorgia Taylor-Brown
San FranciscoMenRico Bogen

Ironman (full distance)

The full-distance season delivered one of the standout performances of the year: at Ironman Texas (the North American Championship, 18 April), Kristian Blummenfelt stopped the clock at a barely believable 7:21:24 — reported as the fastest full-distance time on record — outrunning Marten Van Riel late on. The women’s race the same day went to Solveig Løvseth in 8:11:09, ahead of Taylor Knibb (8:14:48) and Marta Sánchez (8:31:06). Løvseth then completed a full-distance double at the Ironman European Championship in Hamburg, holding off Laura Philipp to win in 8:11:11, just over a minute clear — a remarkable run of form from the reigning Ironman world champion. And earlier in the year at Ironman New Zealand, Trevor Foley and Kat Matthews took the men’s and women’s titles.

Ironman 70.3

The 70.3 circuit has been relentless. Marten Van Riel has been close to untouchable over the middle distance, and Kat Matthews has strung together a run of results that mark her as one of the athletes of the season so far. Kristian Blummenfelt showed his range with a narrow win in a Geelong thriller. A snapshot of the middle-distance winners:

Ironman 70.3 race (2026)MenWomen
GeelongKristian BlummenfeltKat Matthews
Aix-en-ProvenceMichele BortolamediMarjolaine Pierré
ElsinoreMarten Van RielKat Matthews
SwanseaHarry PalmerLizzie Rayner

Why look at it this way

Naming winners is the easy part. What interests me is the layer underneath: how tightly bunched the podiums are becoming, where the time is genuinely being won and lost across the three splits, and how much of the day-to-day variation in performance tracks with heat, humidity and wind rather than fitness alone. A 7:21 at Texas and an 8:11 at a hot, humid European Championship are not the same test, and treating conditions as a first-class variable — not an afterthought — is exactly what the dashboard is designed to make possible.

This is very much a living project. I’ll keep adding races as the 2026 season continues toward the T100 final in Qatar where I will also compete again and the Ironman World Championships, and I’ll keep refining the models behind the rankings and predictions. Have a look at the dashboard, dig into the repository, and tell me what you’d like to see next.

Data sourced from PTO Stats (Professional Triathletes Organisation) and Open-Meteo. Results summarised here are selected highlights compiled from public race reporting as of July 2026; see the dashboard for the complete, up-to-date dataset.

From Splits to Heat Strain: A Ten-Year Triathlon Study Built End-to-End with AI

Regular readers will know I have spent the last couple of months playing with AI agents to scrape and visualise publicly available sport data — first football muscle injuries, then a live dashboard for the Giro d’Italia. Those were fun, low-stakes experiments to learn what the tools could do. This post is the point where the experiment turned into something more serious: a full research study, now posted as a preprint, built almost entirely with the same family of AI tools.

I planned, conducted and executed this study — and developed the accompanying digital twin — using Claude Sonnet 5 and Claude Opus, together with Claude Cowork, Claude Code and Claude Design. Cowork orchestrated the data gathering and organisation across ten years of race results and weather records, Code built the statistical models and the digital twin engine, and Design shaped how the outputs are presented. I stayed firmly in the loop throughout as the domain expert: setting the research questions, checking the physiology and the methodology at every step, validating the data, and deciding what the numbers actually meant. I also modified some of the coding as things progressed to develop various analytics steps.

Why triathlon, why heat

Triathlon is an Olympic sport, and elite Olympic-distance racing is shaped by the interplay of swim-bike-run pacing, transition efficiency, the quality of the field, and — increasingly — the heat athletes race in. Major championships are more and more often held in hot conditions, which matters enormously for how athletes and support staff plan training, pacing, cooling and acclimatization. Despite there being a decade of publicly available race results and weather records out there, nobody had linked the two together at scale. That gap was the starting point.

The study had four aims: characterise the performance signature of a podium finish; reconstruct the thermal environment of championship venues over ten years; identify which athletes seem resilient to heat; and, building on all of that, prototype a digital twin that could support race planning.

Ten years of racing, in numbers

A few things stood out. Bike and run splits each contribute roughly equal unique variance to total race time, but the run leg is the real discriminator between the podium and the rest — it was the single most important feature in the podium-prediction models, at 45.5% importance for men and 48.9% for women. Somewhat counter-intuitively, the slope linking heat to performance did not reach statistical significance for either sex (men p=0.065, women p=0.104), which is a useful reminder not to over-interpret heat effects from headline temperature alone. DNF rates, on the other hand, told a clearer story, ranging from 12.7–16.3% for men and 11.7–18.8% for women across World Triathlon’s Green and Blue flag heat-risk categories.

Building the digital twin

The last aim — and the part I am most excited about — was turning ten years of descriptive analysis into something forward-looking. The digital twin prototype couples a performance model with a thermo-physiological heat-strain model, so it can be used to explore pacing, cooling and acclimatization decisions ahead of a race rather than just explaining results after the fact. On a temporal hold-out (training on earlier years, testing on later ones — the fairest test for something meant to inform future decisions), it achieved a mean absolute error of 0.490 z-units for men and 0.468 for women (r=0.383 and 0.295 respectively). Those are honest, prototype-grade numbers, not a finished predictive tool, and I say so explicitly in the paper.

The usual health warning

This is a preprint. It has not been peer reviewed, and I want to be upfront about that rather than let the AI-workflow angle overshadow it. The underlying data are scraped from publicly available sources, so they carry all the usual caveats about completeness and accuracy that come with that. What I can say is that the statistical approach, the modelling choices and the interpretation were all reviewed and directed by me at every stage — the AI tools accelerated the mechanics of gathering, structuring, analysing and building, but the scientific judgement was, and had to be, human. Critical thinking stays firmly the job of the person in the loop, whatever is doing the typing.

Why this matters to me

I hope this prototype is the beginning of something bigger rather than a one-off curiosity. There is an enormous amount of publicly available data across sport that nobody has the time to properly interrogate and organise — results archives, weather records, GPS feeds, injury registries. What changed for me this year is that a single person, using these AI tools well, can now plan, run and analyse a study of this scale in weeks rather than requiring a full research team and many months. I want to keep using that capability to ask more questions like this one across sports science and sports medicine, and to be transparent about the process as I develop more tools and research questions.

If you want to dig into the full methods, results and figures, the preprint is here: From Splits to Heat Strain: A Ten-Year Analysis of Performance Determinants and a Digital Twin Prototype for Olympic-Distance Triathlon Developed Using a Generative AI Workflow (DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10216961/v1). As always, comments and critique are very welcome — that is rather the point of putting it out as a preprint while it goes through formal peer review.