Seven nineteen: how much of Ditlev’s Ironman world best is the athlete, and how much is Florida?

On 7 November 2026, Magnus Ditlev won IRONMAN Florida in 7:19:17: a 47:52 swim, a 3:51:16 bike and a 2:33:31 run, more than 14 minutes clear of Rudy Von Berg. It is the fastest full-distance triathlon ever recorded. It beats Sam Laidlow’s 7:21:04 at Challenge Roth in July and Kristian Blummenfelt’s 7:21:11 in Cozumel (2021) and 7:21:24 in Texas (April 2026). The bike split is also the fastest ever ridden at the distance, ahead of Cameron Wurf’s 3:53:32 in Texas in 2025.

Triathlon has no official world records. Courses, currents, wind, temperature and course measurement all differ too much, which is why careful outlets call it a “world best”. That leaves an obvious question for anyone who works with performance data: how much of 7:19 is Ditlev, and how much is Panama City Beach on the day? Results data can answer that more precisely than the headlines do.

Stacked bars of swim, bike, transition and run splits for the four fastest full-distance triathlons: Ditlev Florida 2026 7:19:17, Laidlow Roth 2026 7:21:04, Blummenfelt Cozumel 2021 7:21:11, Blummenfelt Texas 2026 7:21:24.
Four ways to go about 7:20. Blummenfelt’s Cozumel time rests on a 39:40 swim with the current; Ditlev’s rests on the bike.

The problem: a time is the athlete multiplied by the day

A finish time is the product of two things we can’t observe directly: how good the athlete was that day, and how fast the course and conditions were. Comparing raw times across venues is like comparing sprint times without knowing the wind reading. The figure above shows the point. Four performances finish within about two minutes of each other, yet their make-up is completely different. Cozumel’s sea swim is current-assisted and comes in about eight minutes faster than the others. Ditlev and Laidlow built their times on the bike. Blummenfelt’s Texas run (2:30:47) carries his 2026 time.

The way through is to use the athletes themselves as the measuring stick. Most elite triathletes race several of these courses across several years. If the same people are consistently quicker on one day than on another, the difference belongs to the day, not to them.

How I did it, step by step

  1. Data. I took the men’s professional top-10 results (swim, bike, run and total) from the PTO stats database for the four courses that hold the fastest times: Florida (2019, 2021, 2023, 2026), Challenge Roth (2019, 2022–2026), Texas (2019, 2022–2026) and Cozumel (2019, 2021, 2022, 2024, 2025). That gives 21 races and 210 results. Cozumel 2023 is excluded because the swim was cancelled. I checked that every row’s splits plus transitions add up to the total.
  2. Model. I fitted a two-way fixed-effects regression on log finish time, with one term for each athlete and one for each race edition. The race terms estimate how fast each race day was for the same people. The model explains 94% of the variance, and the residual is about 0.9% of finish time, roughly four minutes. The network of athletes links all 21 races into a single connected set, which is what allows any course to be compared with any other.
  3. Out-of-sample test. I refitted the model without Ditlev’s Florida 2026 result, then asked what it expected him to do there. I did this for total time and for each discipline.
  4. Course adjustment. I re-expressed the fastest performances as if they had been raced on the Florida 2026 day, with 95% confidence intervals.
  5. Draft check. I compared the spread of top-10 bike splits before and after the 20 m draft zone came in (1 March 2026), alongside RaceRanger’s published drafting data from Roth.

Finding 1: Florida 2026 was a very fast day, but not an outlier

Dot plot of race-day speed for 21 full-distance races from 2019 to 2026. Texas 2026 and Florida 2026 are the fastest, about 14 to 15 minutes quicker than average; Florida 2021 is the slowest.
How fast each race day was for the same athletes, relative to the average race day in the sample, at a 7:30 finishing level.

For the same athletes, Florida 2026 was about 14 minutes faster than the average race day in the sample. Only Texas 2026 (about 15 minutes) was quicker. Roth 2026, where Laidlow set the previous best, comes out about 6 minutes slower than Florida 2026. The 95% interval on that gap runs from 3 minutes faster to 16 minutes slower, so treat it as likely, not certain. An independent rating from TriRating, using a different method, also puts Florida 2026 roughly five minutes quicker than this year’s Roth.

Two things stand out. First, conditions on one course swing a lot from year to year. Florida spans almost 40 minutes, from 2021, when a brutal, current-driven swim left the leaders around 58 minutes, to 2026. Second, the general drift is downwards: seven of the eight fastest race days are from 2023–2026. Part of that is the sport getting faster (equipment, fuelling, depth of field), and a fixed-effects model can’t fully separate that from conditions. I come back to this under limitations.

Finding 2: same course, same men, three years apart

Slope chart of IRONMAN Florida finish times in 2023 and 2026: Ditlev 7:48:52 to 7:19:17, Von Berg 7:34:41 to 7:33:25, Hanson 7:45:26 to 7:35:48.
The three men who were in the top 10 at Florida in both 2023 and 2026.

The simplest check needs no model. Three athletes finished in the top 10 at Florida in both 2023 and 2026. Von Berg, who set the 2023 course record, was only 1:16 faster. Hanson was 9:38 faster. Ditlev was 29:35 faster. In 2023 he rode 3:59:02 and then lost the race on the run (2:52:40). This year he took 7:46 off his own bike course record and ran 19 minutes faster. If the 2026 day had been 30 minutes quicker than 2023, Von Berg would have seen it too. The Florida day did help, but most of Ditlev’s improvement on this course is Ditlev.

Finding 3: he beat his expected time by about seven minutes

Actual minus model-expected times for Ditlev at Florida 2026: swim 26 seconds faster, bike 3:25 faster, run 4:22 faster, total 6:57 faster, all inside the 95% prediction intervals.
Model trained without his Florida 2026 result. Grey bands are 95% prediction intervals.

Given his seven other results in the data and how fast the rest of the field went in Florida, the model expected Ditlev to finish in 7:26:14 (95% prediction interval 7:10 to 7:43). He went 7:19:17, which is 6:57 better than expected. The gain came almost entirely from the bike (−3:25) and the run (−4:22), not the swim (−0:26). That is a very good day, but not an implausible one: it sits inside the prediction interval. The run gain is the more interesting one for coaches. His 2023 Florida run fell apart after a sub-four-hour ride. This time a much faster ride was followed by his best marathon in the data.

Finding 4: where the 7:19 came from

Waterfall chart: Ditlev's expected time on a typical 2025 to 2026 race day of 7:30:51, minus 4:37 for Florida 2026 conditions, minus 6:57 for his outperformance, equals 7:19:17.
Decomposition relative to Ditlev’s expected time on an average modern (2025–26) race day.

Put the pieces together. On an average 2025–26 race day in this sample, the model puts Ditlev at about 7:30:51. The Florida 2026 course and conditions take off about 4:37. His outperformance on the day takes off another 6:57. Roughly, 40% of the gap to his “typical” modern time is the venue, and 60% is the athlete. Measured against the full 2019–26 average day instead, the venue-and-era share grows to about 13 minutes, a reminder that the reference point drives the answer.

Finding 5: adjust for the day and the “best” is a statistical tie

Fastest full-distance performances adjusted to Florida 2026 conditions, with 95% confidence intervals: Laidlow Roth 2026 7:15:13, Blummenfelt Cozumel 2021 7:19:06, Ditlev Florida 2026 7:19:17, Ditlev Roth 2024 7:19:27, Blummenfelt Texas 2025 7:20:22, Blummenfelt Texas 2026 7:22:38. The intervals overlap heavily.
Hollow circles are actual times; filled circles re-express each performance on the Florida 2026 day.

Now move the other fast performances onto the Florida 2026 day. Laidlow’s Roth 7:21:04 becomes about 7:15. Blummenfelt’s Cozumel 7:21:11 becomes 7:19:06. Ditlev’s own Roth 2024 win (7:23:24) becomes 7:19:27, within ten seconds of what he did on Saturday. Blummenfelt’s Texas 2026 time actually gets slower (7:22:38), because Texas 2026 was an even faster day. The confidence intervals run to about ±9 minutes and overlap almost completely. On this evidence, Ditlev’s Florida race is one of five or six performances that are statistically indistinguishable. If anything, Laidlow’s Roth ride on a slower day may be the strongest of them.

Finding 6: did the 20 m draft rule matter?

Line chart of the interquartile range of top-10 men's bike splits at Texas, Roth and Florida from 2019 to 2026. Texas fell to 53 seconds in 2026 even after the 20 metre rule; Florida is 4:44 and Roth 7:02.
A small spread of bike splits among the top 10 is the signature of a group riding together.

IRONMAN and Challenge Roth increased the professional draft zone from 12 m to 20 m from March 2026, citing aerodynamic testing that showed a much smaller benefit at 20 m (Triathlon Magazine Canada). At Roth, RaceRanger reported that the top-10 men’s average illegal drafting time fell from 1:47 to 0:23 (Endurance Sportswire).

Bike-split spread tells a more mixed story. In Texas the interquartile range of top-10 bike splits shrank from 1:51 in 2025 to 53 seconds in 2026. All ten rode between 3:55:35 and 3:58:16. Legal or not, that is a group, and it helps explain why Texas 2026 comes out as the fastest race day in the model. Florida 2026 looks completely different. Ditlev rode alone at the front and was 8:43 faster than the next-best bike split (Sam Long, 3:59:59). Whatever helped him on Saturday, it wasn’t a wheel. For me that makes his 3:51 a more convincing benchmark than any bike split ridden in a pack.

What practitioners should take from this

  • Benchmark athletes against themselves and the field, not against the clock. A simple athlete-plus-race model turns noisy finish times into expected-versus-actual performance. That is far more useful for evaluating a training block than a PB.
  • Read the splits, not just the total. Cozumel’s swim and the Texas group ride both “buy” time that has nothing to do with the athlete’s physiology. Normalise each discipline separately before drawing conclusions about fitness.
  • The bike–run trade-off isn’t fixed. Ditlev’s two Florida races are a natural experiment: a faster ride followed by a much faster run. Pacing, fuelling and durability (the ability to hold power and economy late in the race), not just threshold power, decide whether a big ride turns into a big finish.
  • Report uncertainty. A ±9-minute interval on a course adjustment is the honest answer. “World best” headlines that rank times seconds apart across different venues are reporting noise.

Limitations

  • Top-10 men only, from four courses: 210 results in total. The women’s races and full fields would sharpen the estimates.
  • The athlete terms are fixed over 2019–26, so athletes improving over time partly shows up as faster recent race days. A model with athlete trajectories (random slopes) is the natural next step.
  • No weather covariates. Adding wind, air and water temperature, and whether wetsuits were allowed, would let the model say why a day was fast, not just that it was.
  • Courses change: swim layouts, bike routes, and run measurement. The race-day term absorbs all of this, which is useful for comparing days but not for diagnosing causes.

Bottom line

Florida gave Ditlev a fast day, worth around four to five minutes against a typical modern race day. The rest was the athlete: about seven minutes better than even a model that knew how fast the field went, delivered by riding alone and then running his best marathon. Is it the “best ever”? Adjust for the day and it is part of a cluster of five or six performances within a few minutes of each other, and the statistics can’t separate them. Ditlev’s 7:19 tells you who was in the best shape of his career on Saturday. It does not, on its own, settle who is the fastest long-distance triathlete ever.


Data and sources

Method note: OLS on log(finish time) with athlete and race-edition fixed effects (statsmodels), n = 210, R² = 0.94. Expected times come from refitting with the target result held out; intervals are 95% prediction or confidence intervals as labelled. The dataset and code are available on request.

What’s new in the Lactate Threshold app: evidence-based interval session formats

Over the summer I wrote about the Lactate Threshold Analyzer and then about the anaerobic speed reserve, maximum speed and 3- and 5-zone models. Since then I have kept working on the second half of the tool, the Interval Session Designer, because turning a threshold into a good session is where most coaches actually need help. This post is a quick tour of what has changed.

Lactate Threshold Analyzer showing velocity and heart rate at 4 mmol/L, curve fit quality, estimated maximal aerobic speed, and the lactate performance curve with threshold markers
The app as it looks today, with the sample runner’s step test loaded.

Session formats from a network meta-analysis

The headline change is that the designer now offers eight session formats, taken from the network meta-analysis by Held and colleagues (2026) comparing HIIT protocol designs on accumulated time at or above 90% of V̇O2max. Alongside the classic custom designer you can now pick even long intervals (the reference format in the review), even short intervals, short-interval blocks, 1:1 blocks, decreasing intensity, varied intensity and decreasing duration.

Choosing a format loads the protocol structure used in the studies behind it, and then translates it into speeds, paces and heart rates for your athlete. You can anchor the work on maximal aerobic speed, on the threshold you selected from the test, or on critical velocity if you have it from a separate test. If you choose critical velocity and do not enter one, the app tells you it is falling back on the 4 mmol·L−1 velocity and that the targets may be a little conservative. Every value is editable, and there is a button to reset back to the protocol used in the review.

Interval Session Designer with the eight session formats from Held et al. 2026 and their P-scores, showing the decreasing-duration format with intensity anchor options, work and recovery ladders, and session targets
The eight session formats, here with decreasing-duration intervals selected: 3, 2, 1 min, 45 s and 30 s of work with shrinking recoveries.

Below the inputs, the designer builds a step-by-step prescription table (time, target speed, pace and heart rate for every work and recovery bout) and a plot of the intensity profile of the whole session. The heart rate targets come from the athlete’s own heart rate–speed relationship in the test, capped at HRmax, with a reminder that during short supramaximal bouts heart rate lags and will not reach those values.

The evidence, shown honestly

This is the part I care about most. Each format comes with its own evidence panel: the effect size against even long intervals with its confidence interval, the P-score ranking, how many protocol arms it rests on, the certainty of the evidence, and the actual protocols used in the studies. A small forest plot shows where every format sits.

Intensity profile of the decreasing-duration session and evidence panel comparing each format with even long intervals for accumulated time at or above 90% VO2max, with the Held et al. 2026 reference
The intensity profile of the session and the evidence panel underneath it.

The P-scores look tempting. Decreasing duration ranks top at 89.6%, varied intensity at 76.7%, decreasing intensity at 68.4%. But I did not want the app to turn a ranking into a recommendation. In the review, no format was significantly better than even long intervals, the certainty of evidence is very low, and the top-ranked format rests on just two protocol arms from the same research group, with sessions that were not time-matched to the comparison. The app says all of this next to the numbers, not in a footnote. My advice is the same as the review’s: pick the format on feasibility, the athlete’s profile and matching the workload, and treat the ranking as exploratory.

A ranking is not a recommendation. The evidence panel is there so coaches can see how much, or how little, sits behind each choice.

Choosing the anchor that drives everything

The threshold comparison table now lets you tap any of the six detection methods (V4/OBLA from the curve or by linear interpolation, LT at baseline +0.4 mmol·L−1, Dmax, modified Dmax and the log-log turnpoint) to make it the anchor. Training zones and interval targets update straight away, so you can see how much a choice of method changes the prescription before you commit to one.

Threshold comparison table showing velocity, heart rate, lactate and pace for six detection methods, above the training zones panel with 3-zone and 5-zone options anchored on the selected threshold
Six threshold methods side by side, with the selected one driving the 3- or 5-zone model.

What’s next

I am now working on turning the tool into an iOS and Android app, with athlete and test history, pitch-side data entry, PDF and CSV export, and club or clinic branding. I will post here when it is ready. In the meantime the web version is free to use and nothing needs installing. As always, if you use it and something looks wrong or you would like a feature, let me know.

If you use it in your work, please cite it:

Cardinale, M. (2026). Lactate Threshold and HIT designer [Web application]. Retrieved from https://lactatethresholdhitdesigner.netlify.app.

Reference

  • Held, S., Rappelt, L., Micke, F., Wiedenmann, T., & Donath, L. (2026). Comparison of high-intensity interval training protocol designs on accumulated time ≥ 90% V̇O2max: a network meta-analysis. BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation, 18, 336. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13102-026-01891-7

The tool is intended for education and performance monitoring. Thresholds, zones and session targets should be interpreted alongside the athlete’s full physiological and training profile.

High-volume injections for Achilles tendinopathy: no difference from sham at 12 months

Achilles tendinopathy is one of those conditions every sports medicine team knows too well. Around 6% of people will have it at some point in their lives, 38% of workers affected report reduced work capacity, and exercise-based rehabilitation, the recommended first-line treatment, does not resolve the problem in up to 44% of cases. While I personally solved such issues always with resistance exercise, almost half of those with persistent symptoms go on to seek other treatments, and injections are a common next step. One of the most popular over the last 15 years has been the high-volume injection: 50 mL of fluid pushed in between the tendon and the fat pad that sits in front of it, often with a corticosteroid added.

A randomised controlled trial just published in The BMJ by Peter Malliaras and colleagues, the Inject trial (28 October 2026), gives us the best data so far on whether these injections work. The headline is clear: at 12 months there was no difference between treatments. Neither the high-volume injection with corticosteroid nor the one without it improved pain and disability compared with a sham injection, and the two injections did not differ from each other.

What the trial did

The team randomised 192 adults with midportion Achilles tendinopathy at a radiology clinic in Melbourne between December 2019 and July 2022, recruited mainly through paid social media advertising and referrals from local doctors and physiotherapists. These were not mild cases: mean age 49, 55% men, a median symptom duration of two years, a baseline VISA-A score of 48.7 out of 100, about half with symptoms in both legs and a third with obesity. Everyone had pain for at least three months, ultrasound evidence of tendon pathology (hypoechoic areas and/or Doppler signal), and had not responded to previous treatment; almost 80% had already tried exercise.

Participants were randomised 1:1:1 to one of three arms:

  • Sham injection (n = 64)
  • High-volume injection without corticosteroid (n = 63)
  • High-volume injection with corticosteroid (n = 65)

Crucially, everyone then received the same care from a physiotherapist: a progressive 12-week calf and Achilles loading programme, education on activity modification using a pain-monitoring model, and information about the condition and its prognosis. So the question the trial answers is not “injection versus nothing” but “does adding an injection to good rehabilitation make a difference?”. Adherence was high, with 91–95% of participants averaging at least two exercise sessions a week across groups.

The primary outcome was the VISA-A (Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment – Achilles, 0–100, higher is better) at 52 weeks, and the trial was powered to detect a 10-point difference between any two groups. Because there were three pairwise comparisons, the authors used 98.33% confidence intervals and a significance threshold of 0.0167. A full cost-utility analysis from a societal perspective ran alongside, and the statistical analysis plan was published before any analysis started.

The injections, explained

The high-volume injection was introduced by Otto Chan and colleagues in 2008. Its rationale is that part of the pain in Achilles tendinopathy comes from new blood vessels and nerves growing into the front of the tendon from Kager’s fat pad, the triangle of fat between the Achilles, the deep flexor tendons and the heel bone. Injecting a large volume of fluid exactly at that interface is thought to disrupt this neurovascular ingrowth mechanically or by temporarily reducing blood supply, while a corticosteroid, when added, provides an anti-inflammatory effect.

Each participant received a single injection, under ultrasound guidance, from one of three experienced musculoskeletal radiologists, with the patient lying face down. Dr Chan himself travelled to Melbourne to train the radiologists, and 11% of injections were randomly observed to check fidelity. In practice:

  • High-volume injection with corticosteroid: five 10 mL syringes connected in sequence through a tube. The first contained 10 mL of 0.5% bupivacaine (a local anaesthetic) with 25 mg of hydrocortisone, followed by four syringes of 10 mL normal saline, for a total of 50 mL. The needle was placed at the interface between Kager’s fat pad and the tendon and moved gently along it, under continuous ultrasound monitoring, to spread the fluid evenly over the pathological area.
  • High-volume injection without corticosteroid: identical, except the first syringe contained only the 10 mL of bupivacaine.
  • Sham injection: 2–3 mL of 0.5% bupivacaine, injected at least 10 mm anterior to (deeper than) the fat pad–tendon interface, a placement unlikely to be therapeutic. It produces a numbing effect similar to the high-volume injections.

The masking procedures are worth noting. Every participant went through an identical procedure with five 10 mL syringes. In the sham group, a three-way stopcock diverted the fluid to a hidden bag. The syringes were taped so the colour of the steroid could not be seen, and afterwards participants wore a sleeve over the Achilles to hide any swelling from the large volume. The radiologists knew whether they were giving an active or a sham injection, but not whether the active one contained steroid. The check worked: immediately after the injection, 67–73% of participants in each group were unsure what they had received, and only 22–24% in each group believed they had received an active injection.

Schematic of the high-volume and sham injections used in the Inject trial: side view and ultrasound cross-section of the Achilles tendon and Kager's fat pad, needle position, and the contents of the five syringes
How the injections were delivered: side view, ultrasound cross-section and syringe contents (schematic; click to enlarge).

What each ingredient does

Bupivacaine is a long-acting local anaesthetic. It blocks voltage-gated sodium channels in nerve fibres, so pain signals cannot be transmitted. Its peak effect comes after about 30–45 minutes and the numbness lasts hours, not weeks. In the trial it gave the same numbing sensation in all three arms, which is part of what kept participants unaware of their group. The 50 mg used in the high-volume injections is well below the usual maximum dose of about 2 mg/kg (up to 175 mg), and the sham delivered 10–15 mg.

Hydrocortisone is a corticosteroid. It diffuses into cells, binds the glucocorticoid receptor and switches genes off and on in the nucleus: it dampens the NF-κB-driven production of inflammatory cytokines and COX-2, and increases annexin A1, which blocks phospholipase A2 and therefore the production of prostaglandins and leukotrienes. The net result is less inflammation, less vascular leakage and less pain sensitisation. The same actions have a cost in tendon tissue: injected corticosteroids reduce local collagen production, which can limit healing and leave the tendon more prone to failure. Hydrocortisone is short-acting and the least potent of the injectable steroids: 25 mg is equivalent to about 5 mg of triamcinolone, compared with the 40 mg typically injected into a large joint. Because tendinopathy is thought to be more a failed healing response than classic inflammation, damping that response can ease pain early without rebuilding the tendon.

Saline provides the volume: 40 mL meant to separate the tendon from the fat pad and disrupt the neovessels and nerves, mechanically or by cutting their blood supply. In Inject, the steroid-free injection made no difference to symptoms, Doppler signal or tendon thickness, so the volume on its own seems to be inactive.

Infographic on how bupivacaine, hydrocortisone and saline in a high-volume injection work, with the benefits, local and systemic side effects, groups needing extra care and contraindications for corticosteroid injections
How the drugs in a high-volume injection work, and the benefits and risks of corticosteroid injections (click to enlarge).

What they found: no difference between treatments

Follow-up was excellent, with VISA-A data from 181 of 192 participants (94%) at 12 months. At the primary endpoint there was no difference between any of the groups:

  • High-volume injection with corticosteroid vs sham: −3.5 points (98.33% CI −12.0 to 5.0)
  • High-volume injection without corticosteroid vs sham: +4.0 points (−4.2 to 12.3)
  • With vs without corticosteroid: −7.5 points (−15.3 to 0.3)

The high-volume injection without steroid showed no benefit over sham at any time point, on VISA-A or on any secondary outcome. Ultrasound told the same story: there were no differences in Doppler signal or tendon thickness between this injection and sham. As the authors put it, simply injecting a volume of fluid does not seem to affect tendon pathology or improve clinical outcomes.

The secondary time points showed a pattern worth knowing about, but it needs to be read with caution. With the steroid injection there was a small benefit over sham at six weeks (+9.2 points, 1.5 to 16.9), together with a better global rating of change. By 26 weeks the steroid group was doing worse than the group that had received the same injection without steroid (−8.6 points, −16.4 to −0.7), with higher worst pain over the previous week (11.3 points on a 0–100 scale). All of these differences were smaller than the 10-point target, and the authors note that the early benefit is unlikely to be clinically meaningful and might be no more than chance, given the number of outcomes and time points tested.

Forest plot of between-group differences in VISA-A at 6, 26 and 52 weeks in the Inject trial, showing no difference between treatments at 12 months
Between-group differences in VISA-A with 98.33% confidence intervals.

Benefits and risks of these injections

Benefits. The case for a corticosteroid-containing injection rests on short-term relief. In the Inject trial this was a 9.2-point VISA-A advantage over sham at six weeks, smaller than the 10-point target and gone by 12 months, along with less time off work early on and lower costs over the year. The procedure is quick, done in one visit and image-guided. The steroid-free injection showed no benefit at any point.

Risks in the trial. There were no Achilles tendon ruptures. Six participants had serious adverse events (two in each group), none related to the trial. Non-serious adverse events were common in all groups (53% sham, 38% without steroid, 49% with steroid), mostly aggravated Achilles pain (28%, 16% and 25%) or other musculoskeletal pain. Only one, injection-site pain after the steroid injection, was judged to be related to the injection itself. The main harm signal was clinical rather than a complication: worse VISA-A and worse pain at 26 weeks with the steroid than without it.

Risks of corticosteroid injections in general. A 2024 review in the American Journal of Roentgenology by Kamel, Rosas and Gorbachova sets out the side effects patients should be told about before a musculoskeletal steroid injection. It also notes that systematic reviews are inconclusive on long-term benefit for joints and tendinopathy, which fits the Inject results. Most of the frequencies below come from mixed injection sites, often joints, rather than from Achilles injections specifically:

  • Local: a post-injection flare of pain is common, reported in 33–35% of hand, wrist and shoulder injections, usually starting 1–2 days later and lasting about 2 days. Skin thinning or loss of colour occurs in up to 10% after superficial injections (for example of the plantar fascia), appears within months and usually resolves within a year. Tendon rupture is rare, about 0.1%, typically between 2 days and 6 weeks after the injection, and the Achilles is one of the tendons involved in case reports. Being next to the tendon rather than in it is not a guarantee of safety: in a rabbit study, injection into the retrocalcaneal bursa weakened the Achilles as much as injection into the tendon. Infection after a joint injection is very rare (under 0.001%), and soft-tissue calcification, faster progression of osteoarthritis and bone injury have also been reported, mainly after joint injections.
  • Systemic: part of the injected steroid reaches the bloodstream. Cortisol production is suppressed for at least a week after a single injection, and for up to 2 weeks in a study of young athletes. Facial flushing affects about 40% and settles within 3 days. Blood pressure and blood glucose can rise for more than a week. About half of premenopausal women have early or delayed periods afterwards. Allergic reactions (0.3–0.5%), raised eye pressure, insomnia, headache and, with repeated use, bone loss are also described.
  • People with diabetes: glucose typically peaks 1–3 days after the injection, and levels up to 500 mg/dL have been reported. The review cites a recommendation to check glucose twice a day for a week, seek help above 360 mg/dL, and avoid injecting if fasting glucose is above 200–250 mg/dL.
  • Surgery: injections are linked to more post-operative infections and to more revision surgery after tendon repair. The review suggests delaying surgery for 1–3 months after an injection and withholding steroid for 3–6 months before a tendon repair or joint replacement.
  • When not to inject: absolute contraindications are infection at the needle site, septic arthritis or osteomyelitis, fracture and a prosthetic joint. Relative ones include the HIV drug ritonavir, surgery planned within 4 weeks, previous blurred vision with steroids, very high blood glucose and a previous allergic reaction. There are still no evidence-based limits on how often or how many times these injections can be given; specialty societies suggest at least 3 months between injections, and some authors suggest no more than 3–5 at a single site.
  • Athletes: an International Olympic Committee consensus statement says corticosteroid injections are not indicated for same-day return to play or within 72 hours of competition, because of the risk of tendon weakening, and the review advises avoiding vigorous activity for at least 48 hours after an injection, partly because of the temporary adrenal suppression. Under the WADA rules, glucocorticoids given by any injectable route are prohibited in competition and washout periods apply, so athletes need to check timing with their anti-doping organisation and, where needed, apply for a Therapeutic Use Exemption.

The local anaesthetic is not entirely innocent either. Its toxicity to cartilage depends on dose and exposure time, it appears to add to the toxicity of the steroid when the two are combined, and animal studies suggest a similar additive effect on tendon cells. A systematic review cited by the AJR authors found bupivacaine at 0.5% or higher, the concentration used in the Inject trial, to be the most toxic to human cartilage in the lab, although what this means at the doses used in a single injection is still poorly understood. Accidental injection into a blood vessel can also cause systemic toxicity, one more reason these procedures are done under image guidance.

The cost paradox

The health economic analysis adds a twist. Over a year, the steroid injection was less costly than sham from a societal perspective, with similar quality-adjusted life years, and had a more than 90% probability of being cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds of AUD 50,000 and 100,000. The saving came from less time off work in the first 12 weeks and lower healthcare costs in the last six months. The injection without steroid had a low probability of being cost-effective (under 60%). The authors are cautious (and rightly so!), though: the QALY differences were very small and the health benefit negligible, so this is a modest economic signal rather than a clinical argument for the injection.

How I read it

For me, this is a very well-designed trial and an important one. A few things stand out.

The primary answer is no difference. Adding a high-volume injection, with or without steroid, to a good rehabilitation programme did not change pain and function at one year. That is the result that should guide practice, and the secondary findings do not change it.

The volume is not the active ingredient. The steroid-free injection tests the mechanical “break the neovessels” idea on its own, and it did nothing measurable to symptoms or to the tendon on ultrasound. This agrees with the 2020 BMJ trial by van der Vlist and colleagues, which also found no benefit of the steroid-free injection over sham up to 26 weeks; Inject extends that to 12 months. Earlier positive results came from much smaller trials by Boesen and colleagues (2017 and 2019); for the 2019 trial of 28 people, the Inject authors point out that the small sample raises concerns about overestimated effects and that using saline as the sham may have compromised masking.

Any steroid effect follows a familiar pattern. A possible small, short-lived benefit followed by worse outcomes later is what we have seen with corticosteroid injections in other tendinopathies, particularly lateral elbow. Here it was seen with a low dose (25 mg hydrocortisone) delivered around, not into, the tendon. In his accompanying editorial, John Orchard (University of Sydney) makes the practical point that corticosteroids are neither uniformly good nor uniformly bad: their use depends on whether short-term needs outweigh longer-term ones, patients should never be told an injection will “fix” tendinopathy, and clinicians need to explain that trade-off. The authors give a similar example: a self-employed person under financial pressure may reasonably value a few pain-free weeks.

The authors’ own prior beliefs make the result more convincing. One author is a radiologist working in a clinic that offers high-volume injections, and two physiotherapist authors, including the lead author, declare that they have recommended the injection in the past. Running a trial with a well-designed sham, publishing the analysis plan first, sharing the data and code openly, and then reporting a null result is exactly how it should be done, so kudos to the authors.

Rehabilitation that includes resistance exercise remains the backbone. Every participant received the same structured loading programme and education. The time and effort should go into well-dosed, progressive tendon loading, load management and patient education rather than into injections.

Limitations worth keeping in mind

  • It is a single-centre trial and participants were recruited mainly through social media, so they may not represent people seeking care in hospital or clinic settings.
  • The nurse and radiologists delivering the injections could not be masked, although they followed a scripted protocol to limit any influence.
  • With many outcomes and time points, some of the secondary findings could reflect chance rather than true effects.
  • Only the VISA-A was used from the four instruments in the newer core outcome set for Achilles tendinopathy, COVID-19 restrictions increased missing imaging and strength data, and adverse events and costs were self-reported every six weeks, which may be subject to recall bias.
  • Half the participants had symptoms on both sides but only the worse side was injected.
  • The population was middle-aged with long-standing symptoms. Whether the results apply equally to younger, high-level athletes with a shorter history is not known.

Bottom line

There was no difference between treatments at 12 months: high-volume injections, with or without corticosteroid, are no better than a sham injection when added to good rehabilitation for midportion Achilles tendinopathy. The steroid version may give a small, short-lived benefit at six weeks but is followed by worse outcomes than the steroid-free injection at six months. In the authors’ words, the evidence “should prompt clinicians to reconsider the rationale for using these injections in people with Achilles tendinopathy”, and the clinical data do not support routine use.

Infographic summarising the Inject trial: no difference between treatments at 12 months, with participants, the three injection arms, secondary findings, costs and safety
The Inject trial at a glance (click to enlarge).

Reference: Malliaras P, Connell D, Boesen AP, Kearney RS, Menz HB, Morrissey D, Munteanu SE, Silbernagel KG, Underwood M, Forbes A, Haines TP. Efficacy and cost effectiveness of high volume injections with and without corticosteroid compared with sham for midportion Achilles tendinopathy (Inject trial): randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2026;395:e100807. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2026-100807 (open access). Data and code: https://doi.org/10.26180/c.8671176.

Side effects review: Kamel SI, Rosas HG, Gorbachova T. Local and systemic side effects of corticosteroid injections for musculoskeletal indications. AJR 2024;222:e2330458. https://doi.org/10.2214/AJR.23.30458

Trial protocol: Malliaras P, et al. BMJ Open Sport & Exercise Medicine 2021;7:e001136. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjsem-2021-001136. Trial registration: ACTRN12619001455156.